Sweden’s Riksdag Enters Spring Recess: A Mid-Session Assessment of the Tidö Government’s Legislative Record

With 2,308 rule violations flagged across 2,494 tracked politicians and 109,259 documents processed, the parliamentary session reveals a government struggling to translate coalition arithmetic into legislative momentum

As the Swedish Riksdag settles into the quieter rhythms of a mid-February Thursday, the broader picture of the 2025/26 parliamentary session crystallises into something rather uncomfortable for Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson’s coalition government. The numbers tell a story of ambition colliding with the realities of minority rule.

The Tidö Agreement—that four-party compact between the Moderates, Christian Democrats, Liberals and the Sweden Democrats—was designed to project strength and coherence. Yet the data paints a more nuanced portrait. Across 109,259 documents processed this session, the government’s legislative throughput has been uneven. Moderaterna leads with 1,299 documents, reflecting its position as the largest governing party, but the spread across coalition partners reveals asymmetric contributions: Kristdemokraterna at 387, Liberalerna at 200, and Sverigedemokraterna, the confidence-and-supply partner that dare not speak its name in polite European company, at 687.

Perhaps more revealing are the 2,308 rule violations flagged by the CIA platform’s automated compliance monitoring. This represents a per-capita violation rate that, while not historically unprecedented, suggests a parliament where procedural discipline has frayed. Of the 402 politicians currently tracked, 78 sit in the “high risk” category—nearly one in five—a proportion that warrants closer scrutiny as the election cycle enters its final eighteen months.

Parliamentary Pulse

Thursday’s parliamentary calendar was notably light—a pattern consistent with the Riksdag’s traditional mid-week deceleration before the weekend. No major votes were scheduled, and committee work proceeded largely behind closed doors. This operational quietude, however, masks the substantial backlog of legislative business awaiting floor time.

The committee system—the engine room of Swedish democracy—has processed 8,740 committee documents this session. But the critical metric is not volume; it is the growing gap between documents filed and decisions rendered. The ministry risk assessment data reveals a striking imbalance: 95.24% of ministry periods are classified as “critical risk” in terms of decision throughput, with only 4.76% achieving “high” activity levels.

For the 349 currently serving riksdagsledämöter (members of parliament), plus 69 available substitutes, the spring session promises a compression of legislative business that will test both procedural stamina and cross-party negotiation.

Government Watch

The Kristersson government’s mid-session position reveals the inherent tensions of governing through a confidence-and-supply arrangement. The Moderates’ document output dwarfs their coalition partners, suggesting either greater ministerial ambition or a structural advantage in staffing and resources that smaller parties cannot match.

The distinction matters. When Liberalerna’s 200 documents are weighed against Moderaterna’s 1,299, it raises questions about whether the junior coalition partner is being marginalised in policy formation—or simply choosing different legislative instruments. Either interpretation carries political consequences as the 2026 election approaches.

Opposition Dynamics

Socialdemokraterna remains the most prolific opposition force, with 850 documents filed this session—a figure that places them second only to the governing Moderates. This output differential suggests a party that is simultaneously scrutinising government policy and pre-positioning its own alternative platform for 2026.

The Left Party (Vänsterpartiet), with 126 documents, and the Greens (Miljöpartiet), at 218, present contrasting opposition strategies. Vänsterpartiet’s lower volume may reflect a more targeted approach—concentrating fire on fewer, higher-impact issues—while Miljöpartiet’s relatively stronger showing could indicate broader policy ambitions as they seek to rebuild from their electoral setback.

Centerpartiet’s 393 documents place it in an interesting middle position: more active than most opposition parties, yet clearly focused on carving out policy space distinct from both the government bloc and the traditional left.

Looking Ahead

Friday’s parliamentary agenda is expected to follow the typical end-of-week pattern: limited floor activity, with most substantive work occurring in committee. The coming weeks, however, will bring the spring budget negotiations into sharper focus—a process that will test whether the Tidö coalition can maintain its fragile arithmetic through what promises to be the most contentious fiscal debate since 2014.

The risk metrics suggest caution is warranted: with 19.4% of tracked politicians flagged as high-risk and nearly 70% at medium-risk, the parliamentary session’s second half may produce surprises that the coalition’s thin margins cannot absorb.

By the Numbers

What to Watch This Week

• Spring Budget Negotiations: The Tidö coalition's ability to maintain budget discipline with SD support will be tested in coming weeks.
• High-Risk Politicians: 78 politicians (19.4%) flagged as high-risk — monitoring intensifies in the session's second half.
• Coalition Dynamics: Asymmetric document output between coalition partners suggests possible tensions heading into the 2026 election.