Security Package Meets Parliamentary Resistance
The most controversial bill is Proposition 2025/26:95 on security detention (säkerhetsförvaring)—a system for indefinite detention of dangerous criminals who have completed their sentences. On February 6, the Centre Party and the Green Party tabled Motion 2025/26:3901-3902 in clear opposition to the government's proposal, raising questions about compliance with the European Convention on Human Rights' provisions on personal liberty.
Justice Minister Gunnar Strömmer (Moderate Party) is simultaneously driving two interlinked bills on property transactions that directly address national security and organized crime. Proposition 2025/26:105 introduces security vetting for property transfers—a system where strategic properties near sensitive installations can be blocked on security grounds. This is complemented by Proposition 2025/26:106, which requires identity verification for property registration to prevent criminal networks from laundering money through real estate purchases.
Together, these three bills constitute the government's "law and order" profile ahead of the election campaign. But opposition from the Centre Party and the Greens—both represented on the Riksdag's Justice Committee—signals that preventive detention will face tough scrutiny when the committee convenes in mid-February. Expert hearings are expected, with particular focus on European Court of Human Rights precedents regarding preventive detention.
Financial Supervision: Sweden Tightens Basel Standards
Finance Minister Niklas Wykman (M) and Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson tabled Proposition 2025/26:119 on February 5—"Development of Macroprudential Supervision"—modernizing Sweden's regulatory framework to prevent systemic risks in the banking sector. The bill follows international Basel standards developed after the 2008 financial crisis and grants the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority (Finansinspektionen) expanded powers to impose countercyclical capital buffers when credit risks increase.
For Swedish citizens, this potentially means stricter mortgage rules during overheated property markets. Macroprudential supervision is about identifying risks before they become systemic threats—a proactive approach that differs from the reactive supervision that prevailed before 2008. Sweden's financial sector is particularly exposed to property risks: housing loans constitute approximately 65 percent of banks' lending to households, one of the world's highest ratios.
In parallel, Proposition 2025/26:107 was tabled on February 3—"Modernization of the Tax Agency's Control Tools"—granting the agency AI-driven analytical tools to detect tax evasion. This raises privacy concerns that the Riksdag's Finance Committee must balance: how much digital surveillance is proportionate in the fight against tax fraud? Denmark's aggressive tax collection—where Skat (the Danish Tax Agency) uses extensive data analysis—has been criticized by GDPR supervisory authorities but has simultaneously increased tax revenues by an estimated 2.3 billion kronor annually.
Climate Transition: EU Directives and Circular Economy
The Ministry of Climate and Business delivered two bills in the first week, both focused on Sweden's green transition but with different challenges.
Proposition 2025/26:118, "Permit Processing Under the Renewable Energy Directive," implements the EU's Renewable Energy Directive (RED III) and streamlines the permitting process for wind and solar power projects. Business Minister Andreas Carlson must balance two conflicting demands: faster permits to meet the EU's 2030 targets (Sweden aims for 100 percent renewable electricity production) and respect for municipal autonomy and local communities that often oppose wind power.
Sweden is relatively well-positioned internationally—around 60 percent of energy production is already renewable, compared to the EU average of 32 percent—but the expansion rate must double to meet electrification demands from the transport sector and industry. Permitting times for wind power currently vary between 3-7 years; the directive requires a maximum processing time of 24 months for priority projects.
The second climate bill, Proposition 2025/26:108, "Reform of Waste Legislation for Increased Material Recycling," drives the circular economy through extended producer responsibility. Climate and Environment Minister Romina Pourmokhtari of the Liberal Party (Liberalerna), a former chair of the Liberal Youth of Sweden, appears to be building an environmental policy legacy within her party. The bill raises recycling targets to 65 percent for municipal waste by 2030 (from the current 50 percent) and requires producers to pay for the entire lifecycle of their products.
This is an EU-harmonized reform—several member states have already introduced similar systems—but Swedish implementation is distinguished by extensive business consultation. Industry has warned of cost increases that could harm competitiveness, while environmental organizations argue the targets are still too unambitious compared to the Netherlands (75 percent recycling) or Germany (69 percent).
Culture War and Language Requirements: Coalition Tensions
Two less publicized but politically charged issues reveal tensions within the government's parliamentary base. The Left Party tabled Motion 2025/26:3900 on February 4 in response to Proposition 2025/26:93, "A Language Requirement in Elderly Care." While the Left Party's Jonas Sjöstedt supports Swedish language requirements for care staff in principle, the party demands increased state funding for language training for already employed personnel. This reflects a fundamental tension in the integration debate: requirements without resources can create workforce shortages in a sector already suffering from staffing crises.
Nordic comparisons show varying approaches: Norway requires B2-level (fluent conversation) for health and care personnel and offers employers 85 percent subsidies for language training. Denmark is introducing the same requirements in 2027 but without state subsidies, which has been criticized by trade unions. Sweden's proposed model resembles Denmark's—a requirement without adequate funding—which the Left Party argues could worsen staff shortages in municipalities with high immigrant populations.
Another cultural conflict emerged through Interpellation 2025/26:271 from the Sweden Democrats' Markus Wiechel about "traditional Lucia celebrations in schools." Education Minister Lotta Edholm (Liberals) must navigate between the Sweden Democrats' demands to strengthen Swedish cultural tradition and teachers' pedagogical autonomy. The interpellation—which is being watched internationally as a symbol of Europe's cultural self-assertion versus multicultural inclusion—shows the Sweden Democrats' growing influence on the government's cultural policy agenda despite formally supporting the government from outside without ministerial posts.
Parliamentary Calendar: What Happens Next?
Mid-February (February 10-21): The Justice Committee holds hearings on preventive detention with participation from legal security experts, psychiatrists, and constitutional law scholars. The Centre Party's Alice Teodorescu Måwe and the Green Party's legal spokesperson are expected to lead the opposition interrogation. Simultaneously, the Finance Committee processes the macroprudential supervision bill—the likelihood of unanimous parliamentary support is high since financial stability is a cross-party interest.
Late February/Early March: Votes are expected on several bills. The property security laws (Props 105-106) have broad support—even the Social Democrats back measures against Russian property acquisitions near Swedish Armed Forces facilities. The climate bills are also expected to pass, albeit with reservations from the Left Party and Greens about ambition levels.
March-April Agenda: Spring budget discussions begin, with particular focus on defense appropriations (Sweden is increasing defense spending to 2.5 percent of GDP by 2028, in line with NATO requirements). The results of the 2024 European Parliament election—where Sweden sends 21 MEPs—continue to shape party rhetoric, especially for the Greens and Centre Party, which are fighting near the 4 percent parliamentary threshold in domestic polling.
Riksdag Election September 14, 2026: The coalition (Moderates-Christian Democrats-Liberals, with support from the Sweden Democrats) has a narrow majority—176 seats of 349. Every vote is potentially decisive. The Social Democrats lead in opinion polls (31.2 percent in the latest Novus poll), while the government parties together reach 46.8 percent including the Sweden Democrats (17.5 percent). This means neither bloc currently has its own majority, making the Centre Party—which belongs to neither the left nor right bloc—a potential kingmaker.
Strategic Analysis: Pre-Election Positioning Underway
The government's February offensive is clearly election-campaign oriented. Security themes—from preventive detention to property controls—address the Sweden Democrats' core voters and neutralize opposition criticism that the government is weak on crime. Financial supervision signals responsible economic management and stability amid European banking turmoil (Deutsche Bank's turbulence and Italian small banks' collapses are creating nervousness). Climate bills demonstrate action on the environment—an area where the government is historically weak—without challenging business interests.
Opposition parties are positioning themselves differently:
- Social Democrats: Criticize the preventive detention law as a threat to legal security but avoid appearing soft on crime. Instead, they focus on welfare issues—assistant nurses' wages, healthcare queues, school results—where the government is vulnerable.
- Left Party: Demands more ambitious climate targets and criticizes the government's business-friendliness. Their language requirement motions attempt to win working-class voters concerned about wage dumping while not appearing immigration-critical.
- Centre Party and Green Party: Unexpectedly cooperate on civil liberties issues (preventive detention) despite deeply divided positions on economics. This is a pragmatic alliance in the face of both parties risking being voted out of parliament.
International Comparisons: Sweden's Path
Sweden is not alone in tightening security legislation. Denmark introduced deportation to third countries for asylum seekers in 2022, and the Netherlands is discussing similar preventive detention rules as Sweden. But Nordic legal tradition has historically valued personal liberty highly—higher than Continental European law—making the preventive detention law represent a principled shift.
In finance, Sweden is at the international forefront. Basel III standards were implemented early, and Swedish banks have higher capital coverage than EU requirements (Swedish major banks: 18-20 percent, EU minimum: 12 percent). This has made the Swedish financial sector robust but also less inclined to take risks—and therefore less willing to lend to small businesses. The macroprudential supervision law can address this by giving Finansinspektionen tools to calibrate rules dynamically based on risk assessment.
In climate matters, Sweden is a world leader in renewable energy but lags behind on transport and industry. Norway's car electrification—85 percent of newly registered cars in 2025 were electric—shows what's possible with aggressive incentives (Norway's bonus-malus system provides up to 500,000 kronor in electric car subsidies). Sweden's current system is more restrained, explaining why only 58 percent of 2025 registrations were electric cars.
Conclusion: A Critical Spring Before the Election
The coming six months are critical for Sweden's political direction. The government is trying to exploit parliamentary time to push through its legislative program before the election campaign intensifies in late summer. Opposition parties must simultaneously balance between constructive opposition—demonstrating governing capability—and clear contrast to win voters.
Key questions to watch:
- Will the Centre Party and Green Party block preventive detention? This could trigger a minority government if the government forces a confidence vote.
- How will financial markets react to the macroprudential supervision law? International investors view Nordic banks as safe, but stricter rules could raise borrowing costs.
- Can the government deliver faster permits for renewable energy without alienating rural voters who oppose wind power?
- How will the Sweden Democrats exploit their informal influence over the government? Their support is necessary for the government's survival, but open cooperation damages the Moderates, Christian Democrats, and Liberals' moderate profile.
Swedish voters face a clear choice in September: continue with a right-conservative coalition that prioritizes security, financial stability, and business-friendly environmental policy—or return to Social Democratic leadership with focus on welfare, climate ambition, and worker protection. February's intensive legislative agenda offers a preview of the arguments that will dominate the election campaign.