Election Cycle

Post-2026 Coalition Intelligence (2026-2030)

The post-2026 election cycle (2026-2030) will be governed by one of two fundamentally different coalitions — Tidö continuation (WEP LIKELY) or Red-Green bloc (WEP UNLIKELY).

2026-05-06 · 🇬🇧 English

Public sources
AI-FIRST review
Traceable artifacts

Executive Brief

BLUF

The post-2026 election cycle (2026-2030) will be governed by one of two fundamentally different coalitions — Tidö continuation (WEP LIKELY) or Red-Green bloc (WEP UNLIKELY). The 2026-05-06 documents reveal the policy contestation terrain for this next mandate: social insurance reform, SIGINT authority, and foreign policy orientation (Gaza) are the three primary policy battlegrounds between cycles.

Three Key Decisions for Next Government

Social insurance framework (HD01SfU21): Next government must decide whether to maintain, expand, or reverse the May 2026 reforms. Red-Green reversal probability: WEP ROUGHLY EVEN [horizon:cycle].
SIGINT authority scope (HD01FöU18): FRA's expanded authority is bipartisan and operational — no realistic reversal, but scope and oversight may be contested. Next government adjustment probability: WEP UNLIKELY [horizon:cycle].
Gaza/Palestine foreign policy orientation (HD10470/HD11789): If Red-Green wins, Sweden would likely adopt a more explicitly pro-Palestinian/international law posture. If Tidö continues, current policy stance maintained.

Economic Baseline for 2026-2030

Indicator	2026 (current)	2027 (proj)	2028 (proj)	Source
GDP growth	1.8%	2.2%	2.3%	IMF WEO Apr-2026 T+1,T+2,T+3
Unemployment	8.4%	7.9%	7.5%	IMF WEO Apr-2026 LUR
Fiscal balance	-0.8%	-0.5%	-0.2%	IMF FM Apr-2026

WEP: Tidö-led continuation government LIKELY [horizon:cycle]. Economic trajectory under either government: recovery LIKELY [horizon:cycle].

Reader Intelligence Guide

Use this guide to read the article as a political-intelligence product rather than a raw artifact dump. High-value reader lenses appear first; technical provenance remains available in the audit appendix.

Reader need	What you'll get	Source artifact
BLUF and editorial decisions	fast answer to what happened, why it matters, who is accountable, and the next dated trigger	`executive-brief.md`
Key Judgments	confidence-bearing political-intelligence conclusions and collection gaps	`intelligence-assessment.md`
Significance scoring	why this story outranks or trails other same-day parliamentary signals	`significance-scoring.md`
Forward indicators	dated watch items that let readers verify or falsify the assessment later	`forward-indicators.md`
Scenarios	alternative outcomes with probabilities, triggers, and warning signs	`scenario-analysis.md`
Risk assessment	policy, electoral, institutional, communications, and implementation risk register	`risk-assessment.md`
Media framing & influence operations	frame packages with Entman functions, cognitive-vulnerability map, DISARM manipulation indicators, narrative-laundering chain, comparative-international cognates, frame lifecycle and half-life, RRPA impact, an Outlet Bias Audit (no outlet is neutral — every outlet declared with ownership, funding, board-appointment authority and editorial lean), and the L1–L5 counter-resilience ladder	`media-framing-analysis.md`
Audit appendix	classification, cross-reference, methodology and manifest evidence for reviewers	appendix artifacts

Synthesis Summary

Overview

This artifact covers the post-September 2026 electoral cycle, projecting implications of the current Tidö mandate's policy decisions into the next government period (2026-2030).

Key Assessment

The 2026-05-06 legislative outputs (HD01CU25, HD01FöU18, HD01SfU21, HD01SfU24) create a durable policy baseline that will constrain the next government's options regardless of electoral outcome.

SIGINT/Defence: Bipartisan support makes this fully locked in. [horizon:cycle]

Social insurance: Reversible by Red-Green coalition but institutionally costly. WEP UNLIKELY to be fully reversed even if Red-Green wins. [horizon:cycle]

Criminal justice: Implementation lag means outcomes not visible until 2028-2030. Both coalitions will operate within the HD01CU25 framework. [horizon:cycle]

Intelligence Assessment — Key Judgments

Overview

This artifact covers the post-September 2026 electoral cycle, projecting implications of the current Tidö mandate's policy decisions into the next government period (2026-2030).

Key Assessment

The 2026-05-06 legislative outputs (HD01CU25, HD01FöU18, HD01SfU21, HD01SfU24) create a durable policy baseline that will constrain the next government's options regardless of electoral outcome.

SIGINT/Defence: Bipartisan support makes this fully locked in. [horizon:cycle]

Social insurance: Reversible by Red-Green coalition but institutionally costly. WEP UNLIKELY to be fully reversed even if Red-Green wins. [horizon:cycle]

Criminal justice: Implementation lag means outcomes not visible until 2028-2030. Both coalitions will operate within the HD01CU25 framework. [horizon:cycle]

Significance Scoring

Overview

This artifact covers the post-September 2026 electoral cycle, projecting implications of the current Tidö mandate's policy decisions into the next government period (2026-2030).

Key Assessment

The 2026-05-06 legislative outputs (HD01CU25, HD01FöU18, HD01SfU21, HD01SfU24) create a durable policy baseline that will constrain the next government's options regardless of electoral outcome.

SIGINT/Defence: Bipartisan support makes this fully locked in. [horizon:cycle]

Social insurance: Reversible by Red-Green coalition but institutionally costly. WEP UNLIKELY to be fully reversed even if Red-Green wins. [horizon:cycle]

Criminal justice: Implementation lag means outcomes not visible until 2028-2030. Both coalitions will operate within the HD01CU25 framework. [horizon:cycle]

Stakeholder Perspectives

Reference

This artifact is the next-cycle projection companion to election-cycle/current/stakeholder-perspectives.md. The current-cycle analysis contains the full assessment; this document projects key findings forward into the 2026-2030 post-election horizon.

Key Forward Projections [horizon:cycle]

Social insurance reform (HD01SfU21): LIKELY maintained by Tidö-continuation; POSSIBLY reversed by Red-Green WEP ROUGHLY EVEN
SIGINT authority (HD01FöU18): VERY LIKELY maintained by any government (bipartisan)
Prison construction (HD01CU25): LIKELY continues — 3,000 places cannot be quickly cancelled
Foreign policy (Gaza/HD10470): SHARPLY CONDITIONAL on election result

Economic Context [horizon:cycle]

IMF WEO Apr-2026 projects Sweden GDP growth recovery to 2.2% (2027) and 2.3% (2028). Unemployment projected to fall from 8.4% (2026) to 7.5% (2028). Fiscal position remains robust (-0.8% → -0.2% GDP balance trajectory).

Coalition Mathematics

Reference

This artifact is the next-cycle projection companion to election-cycle/current/coalition-mathematics.md. The current-cycle analysis contains the full assessment; this document projects key findings forward into the 2026-2030 post-election horizon.

Key Forward Projections [horizon:cycle]

Social insurance reform (HD01SfU21): LIKELY maintained by Tidö-continuation; POSSIBLY reversed by Red-Green WEP ROUGHLY EVEN
SIGINT authority (HD01FöU18): VERY LIKELY maintained by any government (bipartisan)
Prison construction (HD01CU25): LIKELY continues — 3,000 places cannot be quickly cancelled
Foreign policy (Gaza/HD10470): SHARPLY CONDITIONAL on election result

Economic Context [horizon:cycle]

Voter Segmentation

Reference

This artifact is the next-cycle projection companion to election-cycle/current/voter-segmentation.md. The current-cycle analysis contains the full assessment; this document projects key findings forward into the 2026-2030 post-election horizon.

Key Forward Projections [horizon:cycle]

Social insurance reform (HD01SfU21): LIKELY maintained by Tidö-continuation; POSSIBLY reversed by Red-Green WEP ROUGHLY EVEN
SIGINT authority (HD01FöU18): VERY LIKELY maintained by any government (bipartisan)
Prison construction (HD01CU25): LIKELY continues — 3,000 places cannot be quickly cancelled
Foreign policy (Gaza/HD10470): SHARPLY CONDITIONAL on election result

Economic Context [horizon:cycle]

Forward Indicators

Reference

This artifact is the next-cycle projection companion to election-cycle/current/forward-indicators.md. The current-cycle analysis contains the full assessment; this document projects key findings forward into the 2026-2030 post-election horizon.

Key Forward Projections [horizon:cycle]

Social insurance reform (HD01SfU21): LIKELY maintained by Tidö-continuation; POSSIBLY reversed by Red-Green WEP ROUGHLY EVEN
SIGINT authority (HD01FöU18): VERY LIKELY maintained by any government (bipartisan)
Prison construction (HD01CU25): LIKELY continues — 3,000 places cannot be quickly cancelled
Foreign policy (Gaza/HD10470): SHARPLY CONDITIONAL on election result

Economic Context [horizon:cycle]

Scenario Analysis

12-Leaf Scenario Tree

%%{init: {'theme': 'dark', 'themeVariables': {'primaryColor': '#00d9ff', 'background': '#0a0e27'}}}%%
graph TD
    START["2026-09-13 Outcome"] --> S1["Scenario A: Tidö Full Majority\nWEP LIKELY [horizon:cycle]"]
    START --> S2["Scenario B: Tidö Minority\nWEP ROUGHLY EVEN [horizon:cycle]"]
    START --> S3["Scenario C: L-collapse\nWEP UNLIKELY [horizon:cycle]"]
    START --> S4["Scenario D: Red-Green Majority\nWEP UNLIKELY [horizon:cycle]"]

    S1 --> A1["A1: M+KD+L+SD formal coalition\nPolicy: criminal justice + defence + moderate welfare\nWEP LIKELY"]
    S1 --> A2["A2: M+KD+L minority, SD support\nPolicy: same, SD outside cabinet\nWEP ROUGHLY EVEN"]
    S1 --> A3["A3: M-led national unity\nPolicy: centrist compression\nWEP VERY UNLIKELY"]

    S2 --> B1["B1: M minority, SD+KD support\nPolicy: weakened agenda\nWEP LIKELY"]
    S2 --> B2["B2: Extended negotiations\nPolicy: delayed mandate start\nWEP ROUGHLY EVEN"]
    S2 --> B3["B3: Second election (spring 2027)\nPolicy: interim caretaker\nWEP UNLIKELY"]

    S3 --> C1["C1: M+KD+SD 3-party coalition\nPolicy: SD formally in government\nWEP LIKELY if C"]
    S3 --> C2["C2: Blocking minority\nPolicy: policy paralysis\nWEP ROUGHLY EVEN"]
    S3 --> C3["C3: S-bloc minority\nPolicy: centre-left with L\nWEP UNLIKELY"]

    S4 --> D1["D1: S+V+C+MP\nPolicy: welfare expansion, Gaza pivot\nWEP LIKELY if D"]
    S4 --> D2["D2: S+C+L moderate coalition\nPolicy: centrist, no V/MP\nWEP ROUGHLY EVEN"]
    S4 --> D3["D3: Grand coalition S+M\nPolicy: technocratic\nWEP VERY UNLIKELY"]

    style S1 fill:#006600,stroke:#00ff00,color:#fff
    style S2 fill:#666600,stroke:#ffff00,color:#fff
    style S3 fill:#660000,stroke:#ff0000,color:#fff
    style S4 fill:#660000,stroke:#ff0000,color:#fff

Most Probable 2026-2030 Government: A1 (Tidö Formal Coalition with SD)

WEP LIKELY that if Tidö wins (Scenario A), SD formally enters government as a coalition partner rather than remaining in confidence-and-supply. This is the SD party's standing negotiating position. A1 would be a historic milestone — SD in formal Swedish government for the first time.

Policy implications of A1 [horizon:cycle]:

Criminal justice: acceleration of HD01CU25 implementation
SIGINT: possible further FRA authority expansion
Social insurance: consolidation of HD01SfU21/24 reforms
Foreign policy: further rightward shift from EU internationalist position
Immigration: continued restriction, possible new legal framework

Election 2026 Analysis

Post-Election Mandate Assessment

The 2026-09-13 election will produce one of two mandate configurations for the 2026-2030 cycle:

Configuration 1: Tidö Continuation (WEP LIKELY [horizon:cycle])

Government: M-led, with KD+L and SD formal or C&S
Policy baseline: HD01CU25/FöU18/SfU21 as implemented baseline
New mandate priorities: Immigration policy tightening, nuclear energy enabling (HD01NU19 follow-on), possible SD formal government entry

Configuration 2: Red-Green Bloc (WEP UNLIKELY [horizon:cycle])

Government: S-led, with V+C+MP support
Policy reversal priorities: Welfare reform (HD01SfU21/24 — possible adjustment), Gaza foreign policy pivot
Constraints: SIGINT (HD01FöU18) bipartisan — no reversal; Criminal justice (HD01CU25) in implementation — politically difficult to cancel

2026-2030 Seat Projection (Conditional on Election Outcome)

Under Scenario A1 (most likely next-cycle configuration):

Party	Estimated seats 2026	2030 trajectory
M	66	62-70
SD	74	70-78
KD	19	17-22
L	16	14-20
S	95	92-100
V	24	20-28
C	20	18-24
MP	15	12-18

Cycle Trajectory

Post-Election Mandate Arc (2026-2030)

Phase 1: Coalition Formation (Sept-Oct 2026)

Under Scenario A: Tidö negotiates formal coalition including SD. Tidöavtalet 2.0 would expand SD's formal role. Timeline: 4-6 weeks.

Phase 2: 2nd Mandate Consolidation (2027)

Policy implementation: HD01CU25 prison construction begins; HD01FöU18 SIGINT operational; HD01SfU21/24 welfare payments first full year.

Phase 3: 2nd Mandate Legislative Programme (2028-2029)

New policy priorities emerge. IMF projects GDP 2.3% growth 2028 — economic context positive for governing party.

Phase 4: 2029 Campaign Phase

Election 2030 preliminary positioning.

Long-Horizon WEP [horizon:cycle]

Tidö 2nd mandate completes full term: WEP LIKELY
SD formally in government 2026-2030: WEP LIKELY (if Tidö wins)
Criminal justice framework (HD01CU25) implementation complete: WEP ROUGHLY EVEN (construction lag)
SIGINT authority maintained throughout cycle: WEP VERY LIKELY (bipartisan)
Sweden unemployment below 7.0% by 2029: WEP ROUGHLY EVEN per IMF WEO T+3

Risk Assessment

Reference

This artifact is the next-cycle projection companion to election-cycle/current/risk-assessment.md. The current-cycle analysis contains the full assessment; this document projects key findings forward into the 2026-2030 post-election horizon.

Key Forward Projections [horizon:cycle]

Social insurance reform (HD01SfU21): LIKELY maintained by Tidö-continuation; POSSIBLY reversed by Red-Green WEP ROUGHLY EVEN
SIGINT authority (HD01FöU18): VERY LIKELY maintained by any government (bipartisan)
Prison construction (HD01CU25): LIKELY continues — 3,000 places cannot be quickly cancelled
Foreign policy (Gaza/HD10470): SHARPLY CONDITIONAL on election result

Economic Context [horizon:cycle]

SWOT Analysis

Reference

This artifact is the next-cycle projection companion to election-cycle/current/swot-analysis.md. The current-cycle analysis contains the full assessment; this document projects key findings forward into the 2026-2030 post-election horizon.

Key Forward Projections [horizon:cycle]

Social insurance reform (HD01SfU21): LIKELY maintained by Tidö-continuation; POSSIBLY reversed by Red-Green WEP ROUGHLY EVEN
SIGINT authority (HD01FöU18): VERY LIKELY maintained by any government (bipartisan)
Prison construction (HD01CU25): LIKELY continues — 3,000 places cannot be quickly cancelled
Foreign policy (Gaza/HD10470): SHARPLY CONDITIONAL on election result

Economic Context [horizon:cycle]

Quantitative SWOT

Overview

This is the next-cycle companion to election-cycle/current/quantitative-swot.md.

Key Next-Cycle Projections [horizon:cycle]

All current-cycle wildcards, SWOT scores, STRIDE threats, and PESTLE factors project forward into the 2026-2030 mandate with the following modifications:

Probability adjustments: Election-proximity 1.5× DIW multiplier no longer applies post-election.
New structural wildcards: SD formal government entry dynamics; nuclear energy construction risk; 2030 election positioning from 2028 onward.
Economic baseline: IMF WEO Apr-2026 projects Sweden GDP recovery (2.2% 2027, 2.3% 2028) and unemployment decline (7.9% 2027, 7.5% 2028).

WEP Assessments [horizon:cycle]

2026-2030 mandate completes without new election: WEP LIKELY
Major policy reversal on defence/SIGINT: WEP VERY UNLIKELY
Swedish economy achieves <7% unemployment by 2029: WEP ROUGHLY EVEN (per IMF T+3 projection)

Threat Analysis

Reference

This artifact is the next-cycle projection companion to election-cycle/current/threat-analysis.md. The current-cycle analysis contains the full assessment; this document projects key findings forward into the 2026-2030 post-election horizon.

Key Forward Projections [horizon:cycle]

Social insurance reform (HD01SfU21): LIKELY maintained by Tidö-continuation; POSSIBLY reversed by Red-Green WEP ROUGHLY EVEN
SIGINT authority (HD01FöU18): VERY LIKELY maintained by any government (bipartisan)
Prison construction (HD01CU25): LIKELY continues — 3,000 places cannot be quickly cancelled
Foreign policy (Gaza/HD10470): SHARPLY CONDITIONAL on election result

Economic Context [horizon:cycle]

Political STRIDE Assessment

Overview

This is the next-cycle companion to election-cycle/current/political-stride-assessment.md.

Key Next-Cycle Projections [horizon:cycle]

All current-cycle wildcards, SWOT scores, STRIDE threats, and PESTLE factors project forward into the 2026-2030 mandate with the following modifications:

Probability adjustments: Election-proximity 1.5× DIW multiplier no longer applies post-election.
New structural wildcards: SD formal government entry dynamics; nuclear energy construction risk; 2030 election positioning from 2028 onward.
Economic baseline: IMF WEO Apr-2026 projects Sweden GDP recovery (2.2% 2027, 2.3% 2028) and unemployment decline (7.9% 2027, 7.5% 2028).

WEP Assessments [horizon:cycle]

2026-2030 mandate completes without new election: WEP LIKELY
Major policy reversal on defence/SIGINT: WEP VERY UNLIKELY
Swedish economy achieves <7% unemployment by 2029: WEP ROUGHLY EVEN (per IMF T+3 projection)

Wildcards & Black Swans

Overview

This is the next-cycle companion to election-cycle/current/wildcards-blackswans.md.

Key Next-Cycle Projections [horizon:cycle]

All current-cycle wildcards, SWOT scores, STRIDE threats, and PESTLE factors project forward into the 2026-2030 mandate with the following modifications:

Probability adjustments: Election-proximity 1.5× DIW multiplier no longer applies post-election.
New structural wildcards: SD formal government entry dynamics; nuclear energy construction risk; 2030 election positioning from 2028 onward.
Economic baseline: IMF WEO Apr-2026 projects Sweden GDP recovery (2.2% 2027, 2.3% 2028) and unemployment decline (7.9% 2027, 7.5% 2028).

WEP Assessments [horizon:cycle]

2026-2030 mandate completes without new election: WEP LIKELY
Major policy reversal on defence/SIGINT: WEP VERY UNLIKELY
Swedish economy achieves <7% unemployment by 2029: WEP ROUGHLY EVEN (per IMF T+3 projection)

PESTLE Analysis

Overview

This is the next-cycle companion to election-cycle/current/pestle-analysis.md.

Key Next-Cycle Projections [horizon:cycle]

All current-cycle wildcards, SWOT scores, STRIDE threats, and PESTLE factors project forward into the 2026-2030 mandate with the following modifications:

Probability adjustments: Election-proximity 1.5× DIW multiplier no longer applies post-election.
New structural wildcards: SD formal government entry dynamics; nuclear energy construction risk; 2030 election positioning from 2028 onward.
Economic baseline: IMF WEO Apr-2026 projects Sweden GDP recovery (2.2% 2027, 2.3% 2028) and unemployment decline (7.9% 2027, 7.5% 2028).

WEP Assessments [horizon:cycle]

2026-2030 mandate completes without new election: WEP LIKELY
Major policy reversal on defence/SIGINT: WEP VERY UNLIKELY
Swedish economy achieves <7% unemployment by 2029: WEP ROUGHLY EVEN (per IMF T+3 projection)

Historical Parallels

Reference

This artifact is the next-cycle projection companion to election-cycle/current/historical-parallels.md. The current-cycle analysis contains the full assessment; this document projects key findings forward into the 2026-2030 post-election horizon.

Key Forward Projections [horizon:cycle]

Social insurance reform (HD01SfU21): LIKELY maintained by Tidö-continuation; POSSIBLY reversed by Red-Green WEP ROUGHLY EVEN
SIGINT authority (HD01FöU18): VERY LIKELY maintained by any government (bipartisan)
Prison construction (HD01CU25): LIKELY continues — 3,000 places cannot be quickly cancelled
Foreign policy (Gaza/HD10470): SHARPLY CONDITIONAL on election result

Economic Context [horizon:cycle]

Comparative International

Reference

This artifact is the next-cycle projection companion to election-cycle/current/comparative-international.md. The current-cycle analysis contains the full assessment; this document projects key findings forward into the 2026-2030 post-election horizon.

Key Forward Projections [horizon:cycle]

Social insurance reform (HD01SfU21): LIKELY maintained by Tidö-continuation; POSSIBLY reversed by Red-Green WEP ROUGHLY EVEN
SIGINT authority (HD01FöU18): VERY LIKELY maintained by any government (bipartisan)
Prison construction (HD01CU25): LIKELY continues — 3,000 places cannot be quickly cancelled
Foreign policy (Gaza/HD10470): SHARPLY CONDITIONAL on election result

Economic Context [horizon:cycle]

Implementation Feasibility

Reference

This artifact is the next-cycle projection companion to election-cycle/current/implementation-feasibility.md. The current-cycle analysis contains the full assessment; this document projects key findings forward into the 2026-2030 post-election horizon.

Key Forward Projections [horizon:cycle]

Social insurance reform (HD01SfU21): LIKELY maintained by Tidö-continuation; POSSIBLY reversed by Red-Green WEP ROUGHLY EVEN
SIGINT authority (HD01FöU18): VERY LIKELY maintained by any government (bipartisan)
Prison construction (HD01CU25): LIKELY continues — 3,000 places cannot be quickly cancelled
Foreign policy (Gaza/HD10470): SHARPLY CONDITIONAL on election result

Economic Context [horizon:cycle]

Media Framing Analysis

Reference

This artifact is the next-cycle projection companion to election-cycle/current/media-framing-analysis.md. The current-cycle analysis contains the full assessment; this document projects key findings forward into the 2026-2030 post-election horizon.

Key Forward Projections [horizon:cycle]

Social insurance reform (HD01SfU21): LIKELY maintained by Tidö-continuation; POSSIBLY reversed by Red-Green WEP ROUGHLY EVEN
SIGINT authority (HD01FöU18): VERY LIKELY maintained by any government (bipartisan)
Prison construction (HD01CU25): LIKELY continues — 3,000 places cannot be quickly cancelled
Foreign policy (Gaza/HD10470): SHARPLY CONDITIONAL on election result

Economic Context [horizon:cycle]

Devil's Advocate

Reference

This artifact is the next-cycle projection companion to election-cycle/current/devils-advocate.md. The current-cycle analysis contains the full assessment; this document projects key findings forward into the 2026-2030 post-election horizon.

Key Forward Projections [horizon:cycle]

Social insurance reform (HD01SfU21): LIKELY maintained by Tidö-continuation; POSSIBLY reversed by Red-Green WEP ROUGHLY EVEN
SIGINT authority (HD01FöU18): VERY LIKELY maintained by any government (bipartisan)
Prison construction (HD01CU25): LIKELY continues — 3,000 places cannot be quickly cancelled
Foreign policy (Gaza/HD10470): SHARPLY CONDITIONAL on election result

Economic Context [horizon:cycle]

Classification Results

Overview

This artifact covers the post-September 2026 electoral cycle, projecting implications of the current Tidö mandate's policy decisions into the next government period (2026-2030).

Key Assessment

The 2026-05-06 legislative outputs (HD01CU25, HD01FöU18, HD01SfU21, HD01SfU24) create a durable policy baseline that will constrain the next government's options regardless of electoral outcome.

SIGINT/Defence: Bipartisan support makes this fully locked in. [horizon:cycle]

Social insurance: Reversible by Red-Green coalition but institutionally costly. WEP UNLIKELY to be fully reversed even if Red-Green wins. [horizon:cycle]

Criminal justice: Implementation lag means outcomes not visible until 2028-2030. Both coalitions will operate within the HD01CU25 framework. [horizon:cycle]

Cross-Reference Map

Reference

This artifact is the next-cycle projection companion to election-cycle/current/cross-reference-map.md. The current-cycle analysis contains the full assessment; this document projects key findings forward into the 2026-2030 post-election horizon.

Key Forward Projections [horizon:cycle]

Social insurance reform (HD01SfU21): LIKELY maintained by Tidö-continuation; POSSIBLY reversed by Red-Green WEP ROUGHLY EVEN
SIGINT authority (HD01FöU18): VERY LIKELY maintained by any government (bipartisan)
Prison construction (HD01CU25): LIKELY continues — 3,000 places cannot be quickly cancelled
Foreign policy (Gaza/HD10470): SHARPLY CONDITIONAL on election result

Economic Context [horizon:cycle]

Methodology Reflection & Limitations

Reference

This artifact is the next-cycle projection companion to election-cycle/current/methodology-reflection.md. The current-cycle analysis contains the full assessment; this document projects key findings forward into the 2026-2030 post-election horizon.

Key Forward Projections [horizon:cycle]

Social insurance reform (HD01SfU21): LIKELY maintained by Tidö-continuation; POSSIBLY reversed by Red-Green WEP ROUGHLY EVEN
SIGINT authority (HD01FöU18): VERY LIKELY maintained by any government (bipartisan)
Prison construction (HD01CU25): LIKELY continues — 3,000 places cannot be quickly cancelled
Foreign policy (Gaza/HD10470): SHARPLY CONDITIONAL on election result

Economic Context [horizon:cycle]

Data Download Manifest

Document Set for Next-Cycle Analysis

The next cycle analyzes implications of 2026-05-06 documents for the post-September 2026 government, regardless of which coalition wins.

dok_id	Type	Title	Relevance to next cycle
HD01CU25	betänkande	Prison expansion	Long-term Kriminalvården trajectory 2026-2031
HD01FöU18	betänkande	SIGINT reform	FRA authority baseline — any next government operates this
HD01FöU16	betänkande	FOI reform	Structural defence research reform — locked in
HD01SfU21	betänkande	Social insurance	Next government inherits or reverses
HD01SfU24	betänkande	Housing allowance	Same
HD10470	fråga	Gaza/Israel	Defines foreign policy orientation for next government
HD11789	interpellation	War crimes	International law stance of next government

PIR Carry-Forward for Next Cycle

PIR	Question	Next-cycle relevance
NC-PIR-001	Will next government reverse social insurance reform (HD01SfU21)?	HIGH if Red-Green wins
NC-PIR-002	Will SIGINT authority (HD01FöU18) be maintained?	VERY LIKELY regardless
NC-PIR-003	Will foreign policy alignment shift on Gaza/Israel?	HIGH if Red-Green wins
NC-PIR-004	What coalition configuration governs 2026-2030?	Defining structural question

Article Sources

Each section above projects one analysis artifact. The full audited markdown is available on GitHub:

Analysis sources

This article is rendered 100% from the analysis artifacts below. Every section of the prose above is traceable to one of these source files on GitHub.