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* @module Intelligence/StatisticalClaimsDetector
* @description Detects and fact-checks statistical claims made by politicians
* in parliamentary speeches and debates. Cross-references claimed figures
* against official data from World Bank and SCB (Statistics Sweden) MCP servers.
*
* This enables breaking-news or commentary articles when politicians use
* statistics to validate policy claims — surfacing whether the data supports
* or contradicts their assertions.
*
* @author Hack23 AB
* @license Apache-2.0
*/
import type { Language } from './types/language.js';
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
// Types
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
/** A statistical claim extracted from a speech or document */
export interface StatisticalClaim {
/** The original text excerpt containing the claim */
readonly sourceText: string;
/** Detected statistical topic (e.g., 'unemployment', 'gdp', 'migration') */
readonly topic: string;
/** Claimed numeric value (if extractable) */
readonly claimedValue?: number;
/** Unit of the claimed value (e.g., 'percent', 'billions SEK') */
readonly claimedUnit?: string;
/** Person making the claim */
readonly speaker?: string;
/** Party affiliation */
readonly party?: string;
/** Data source for verification ('world-bank' | 'scb' | 'both') */
readonly verificationSource: 'world-bank' | 'scb' | 'both';
/** World Bank indicator ID for cross-reference (if applicable) */
readonly worldBankIndicator?: string;
/** SCB table ID for cross-reference (if applicable) */
readonly scbTableId?: string;
}
/** Result of fact-checking a statistical claim */
export interface FactCheckResult {
/** The original claim */
readonly claim: StatisticalClaim;
/** Official value from data source */
readonly officialValue?: number;
/** Unit of the official value */
readonly officialUnit?: string;
/** Period of the official data */
readonly officialPeriod?: string;
/** Verdict on the claim */
readonly verdict: ClaimVerdict;
/** Percentage deviation from official data (if both values available) */
readonly deviationPercent?: number;
/** Human-readable explanation */
readonly explanation: string;
/** Data source used for verification */
readonly dataSource: string;
}
/** Possible verdicts for a statistical claim */
export type ClaimVerdict =
| 'accurate' // Claim matches official data (within 5%)
| 'mostly-accurate' // Claim is close but not exact (5-15% deviation)
| 'misleading' // Claim uses real data but in a misleading way (15-30%)
| 'inaccurate' // Claim significantly deviates from official data (>30%)
| 'unverifiable' // Cannot be verified against available data
| 'outdated'; // Claim uses old data when newer is available
/** Localized headings for fact-check sections in articles */
export interface FactCheckHeadings {
readonly factCheck: string;
readonly claimVsReality: string;
readonly verdict: string;
readonly dataSource: string;
}
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
// Claim detection patterns
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
/** Pattern definitions for detecting statistical claims in text */
interface ClaimPattern {
readonly pattern: RegExp;
readonly topic: string;
readonly verificationSource: 'world-bank' | 'scb' | 'both';
readonly worldBankIndicator?: string;
readonly scbTableId?: string;
}
/**
* Patterns for detecting statistical claims in Swedish and English political text.
* Each pattern maps to a specific topic and data source for verification.
*/
const CLAIM_PATTERNS: readonly ClaimPattern[] = [
// Unemployment claims
{
pattern: /arbetslöshet(?:en)?\s+(?:ligger\s+på|är|uppgår\s+till|(?:har\s+)?(?:sjunkit|ökat|minskat)\s+till)\s+(\d+[,.]?\d*)\s*(?:procent|%)/gi,
topic: 'unemployment',
verificationSource: 'both',
worldBankIndicator: 'SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS',
scbTableId: 'TAB5765',
},
{
pattern: /unemployment\s+(?:rate\s+)?(?:is|stands?\s+at|(?:has\s+)?(?:fallen|risen|dropped)\s+to)\s+(\d+[,.]?\d*)\s*(?:percent|%)/gi,
topic: 'unemployment',
verificationSource: 'both',
worldBankIndicator: 'SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS',
scbTableId: 'TAB5765',
},
// GDP claims
{
pattern: /(?:BNP|bruttonationalprodukt)(?:en)?\s+(?:växer|ökar|krymper|sjunker|har\s+(?:vuxit|ökat|krympt))\s+(?:med\s+)?(\d+[,.]?\d*)\s*(?:procent|%)/gi,
topic: 'gdp',
verificationSource: 'both',
worldBankIndicator: 'NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG',
scbTableId: 'TAB5802',
},
{
pattern: /GDP\s+(?:growth\s+)?(?:grew|expanded|contracted|shrank)\s+(?:by\s+)?(\d+[,.]?\d*)\s*(?:percent|%)/gi,
topic: 'gdp',
verificationSource: 'both',
worldBankIndicator: 'NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG',
scbTableId: 'TAB5802',
},
// Inflation claims
{
pattern: /inflation(?:en)?\s+(?:ligger\s+på|är|uppgår\s+till|(?:har\s+)?(?:sjunkit|ökat)\s+till)\s+(\d+[,.]?\d*)\s*(?:procent|%)/gi,
topic: 'inflation',
verificationSource: 'both',
worldBankIndicator: 'FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG',
},
{
pattern: /inflation\s+(?:rate\s+)?(?:is|stands?\s+at|(?:has\s+)?(?:fallen|risen)\s+to)\s+(\d+[,.]?\d*)\s*(?:percent|%)/gi,
topic: 'inflation',
verificationSource: 'both',
worldBankIndicator: 'FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG',
},
// Migration claims
{
pattern: /(?:invandring|immigration)(?:en)?\s+(?:ligger\s+på|är|uppgår\s+till|(?:har\s+)?(?:ökat|minskat)\s+till)\s+(\d+[\s,.]?\d*)\s*(?:personer|person|människor)?/gi,
topic: 'migration',
verificationSource: 'scb',
scbTableId: 'TAB637',
},
{
pattern: /immigration\s+(?:stands?\s+at|(?:has\s+)?(?:risen|fallen)\s+to)\s+(\d+[\s,.]?\d*)\s*(?:people|persons?)?/gi,
topic: 'migration',
verificationSource: 'scb',
scbTableId: 'TAB637',
},
// Crime statistics claims
{
pattern: /(?:brott|brottslighet)(?:en)?\s+(?:har\s+)?(?:ökat|minskat)\s+(?:med\s+)?(\d+[,.]?\d*)\s*(?:procent|%)/gi,
topic: 'crime',
verificationSource: 'scb',
scbTableId: 'TAB1172',
},
// Defence spending claims
{
pattern: /försvarsutgift(?:er|erna)?\s+(?:ligger\s+på|uppgår\s+till|är)\s+(\d+[,.]?\d*)\s*(?:procent|%)\s*(?:av\s+BNP)?/gi,
topic: 'defence',
verificationSource: 'both',
worldBankIndicator: 'MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS',
},
{
pattern: /(?:military|defence|defense)\s+spending\s+(?:is|stands?\s+at)\s+(\d+[,.]?\d*)\s*(?:percent|%)\s*(?:of\s+GDP)?/gi,
topic: 'defence',
verificationSource: 'both',
worldBankIndicator: 'MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS',
},
// Education spending claims
{
pattern: /utbildning(?:sutgifter|sbudget)?\s+(?:uppgår\s+till|är|ligger\s+på)\s+(\d+[,.]?\d*)\s*(?:miljarder|procent|%)/gi,
topic: 'education',
verificationSource: 'scb',
scbTableId: 'TAB4787',
},
// Housing claims
{
pattern: /bostadsbyggande(?:t)?\s+(?:har\s+)?(?:ökat|minskat)\s+(?:med\s+)?(\d+[,.]?\d*)\s*(?:procent|%|bostäder)/gi,
topic: 'housing',
verificationSource: 'scb',
scbTableId: 'TAB2052',
},
// Generic numeric claims with percent
{
pattern: /(\d+[,.]?\d*)\s*(?:procent|%)\s+(?:av\s+)?(?:BNP|bruttonationalprodukt)/gi,
topic: 'gdp-share',
verificationSource: 'scb',
},
];
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
// Localized headings
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
/**
* Localized section headings for fact-check sections in articles.
*/
export const FACT_CHECK_HEADINGS: Readonly<Record<Language, FactCheckHeadings>> = {
en: {
factCheck: 'Fact Check',
claimVsReality: 'Claim vs. Reality',
verdict: 'Verdict',
dataSource: 'Data Source',
},
sv: {
factCheck: 'Faktakoll',
claimVsReality: 'Påstående kontra verklighet',
verdict: 'Bedömning',
dataSource: 'Datakälla',
},
da: {
factCheck: 'Faktatjek',
claimVsReality: 'Påstand kontra virkelighed',
verdict: 'Vurdering',
dataSource: 'Datakilde',
},
no: {
factCheck: 'Faktasjekk',
claimVsReality: 'Påstand kontra virkelighet',
verdict: 'Vurdering',
dataSource: 'Datakilde',
},
fi: {
factCheck: 'Faktatarkistus',
claimVsReality: 'Väite vastaan todellisuus',
verdict: 'Arvio',
dataSource: 'Tietolähde',
},
de: {
factCheck: 'Faktencheck',
claimVsReality: 'Behauptung vs. Realität',
verdict: 'Bewertung',
dataSource: 'Datenquelle',
},
fr: {
factCheck: 'Vérification des faits',
claimVsReality: 'Affirmation vs. Réalité',
verdict: 'Verdict',
dataSource: 'Source des données',
},
es: {
factCheck: 'Verificación de datos',
claimVsReality: 'Afirmación vs. Realidad',
verdict: 'Veredicto',
dataSource: 'Fuente de datos',
},
nl: {
factCheck: 'Feitencontrole',
claimVsReality: 'Bewering vs. Werkelijkheid',
verdict: 'Oordeel',
dataSource: 'Databron',
},
ar: {
factCheck: 'تدقيق الحقائق',
claimVsReality: 'الادعاء مقابل الواقع',
verdict: 'الحكم',
dataSource: 'مصدر البيانات',
},
he: {
factCheck: 'בדיקת עובדות',
claimVsReality: 'טענה מול מציאות',
verdict: 'הכרעה',
dataSource: 'מקור נתונים',
},
ja: {
factCheck: 'ファクトチェック',
claimVsReality: '主張 vs. 現実',
verdict: '判定',
dataSource: 'データソース',
},
ko: {
factCheck: '팩트체크',
claimVsReality: '주장 대 현실',
verdict: '판정',
dataSource: '데이터 출처',
},
zh: {
factCheck: '事实核查',
claimVsReality: '声称与现实',
verdict: '判定',
dataSource: '数据来源',
},
} as const;
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
// Core detection functions
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
/**
* Extract statistical claims from text content (speech, debate transcript, document).
*
* Scans for patterns where politicians cite specific numbers related to
* economic indicators, social statistics, or policy metrics that can be
* verified against World Bank or SCB data.
*
* @param text - Text content to analyze (speech transcript, article, etc.)
* @param speaker - Optional speaker name
* @param party - Optional party affiliation
* @returns Array of detected statistical claims
*/
export function detectStatisticalClaims(
text: string,
speaker?: string,
party?: string,
): StatisticalClaim[] {
if (!text || text.trim().length === 0) {
return [];
}
const claims: StatisticalClaim[] = [];
const seen = new Set<string>();
for (const claimPattern of CLAIM_PATTERNS) {
// Reset regex state for each iteration
const pattern = new RegExp(claimPattern.pattern.source, claimPattern.pattern.flags);
let match: RegExpExecArray | null;
while ((match = pattern.exec(text)) !== null) {
const sourceText = match[0];
// Deduplicate by source text
const key = `${claimPattern.topic}:${sourceText}`;
Iif (seen.has(key)) continue;
seen.add(key);
// Parse the claimed numeric value
let claimedValue: number | undefined;
Eif (match[1]) {
const normalized = match[1].replace(/\s/g, '').replace(',', '.');
claimedValue = parseFloat(normalized);
Iif (isNaN(claimedValue)) claimedValue = undefined;
}
// Determine unit from context
const claimedUnit = detectUnit(sourceText);
claims.push({
sourceText,
topic: claimPattern.topic,
claimedValue,
claimedUnit,
speaker,
party,
verificationSource: claimPattern.verificationSource,
worldBankIndicator: claimPattern.worldBankIndicator,
scbTableId: claimPattern.scbTableId,
});
}
}
return claims;
}
/**
* Determine the verdict for a claim based on deviation from official data.
*
* @param claimedValue - The value claimed by the politician
* @param officialValue - The official value from data source
* @returns Verdict and deviation percentage
*/
export function assessClaim(
claimedValue: number,
officialValue: number,
): { verdict: ClaimVerdict; deviationPercent: number } {
if (officialValue === 0) {
return {
verdict: claimedValue === 0 ? 'accurate' : 'unverifiable',
deviationPercent: claimedValue === 0 ? 0 : 100,
};
}
const deviation = Math.abs(claimedValue - officialValue) / Math.abs(officialValue) * 100;
if (deviation <= 5) {
return { verdict: 'accurate', deviationPercent: deviation };
}
if (deviation <= 15) {
return { verdict: 'mostly-accurate', deviationPercent: deviation };
}
if (deviation <= 30) {
return { verdict: 'misleading', deviationPercent: deviation };
}
return { verdict: 'inaccurate', deviationPercent: deviation };
}
/**
* Generate a human-readable explanation for a fact-check result.
*
* @param claim - The statistical claim
* @param officialValue - Official value (if available)
* @param officialPeriod - Period of official data
* @param verdict - The assessed verdict
* @param lang - Language code for localization
* @returns Explanation string
*/
export function generateExplanation(
claim: StatisticalClaim,
officialValue: number | undefined,
officialPeriod: string | undefined,
verdict: ClaimVerdict,
lang: Language | string = 'en',
): string {
const isSwedish = lang === 'sv';
if (verdict === 'unverifiable') {
return isSwedish
? `Påståendet om ${claim.topic} kunde inte verifieras mot tillgängliga datakällor.`
: `The claim about ${claim.topic} could not be verified against available data sources.`;
}
if (claim.claimedValue === undefined || officialValue === undefined) {
return isSwedish
? `Kvantitativt påstående om ${claim.topic} detekterat men saknar verifierbart värde.`
: `Quantitative claim about ${claim.topic} detected but lacks a verifiable value.`;
}
const sourceName = claim.verificationSource === 'scb'
? 'SCB (Statistics Sweden)'
: claim.verificationSource === 'world-bank'
? 'World Bank'
: 'SCB / World Bank';
const period = officialPeriod ? ` (${officialPeriod})` : '';
const verdictLabels: Record<ClaimVerdict, { en: string; sv: string }> = {
accurate: { en: 'Accurate', sv: 'Korrekt' },
'mostly-accurate': { en: 'Mostly accurate', sv: 'I huvudsak korrekt' },
misleading: { en: 'Misleading', sv: 'Missvisande' },
inaccurate: { en: 'Inaccurate', sv: 'Felaktigt' },
unverifiable: { en: 'Unverifiable', sv: 'Ej verifierbart' },
outdated: { en: 'Outdated data', sv: 'Föråldrade data' },
};
const verdictLabel = isSwedish ? verdictLabels[verdict].sv : verdictLabels[verdict].en;
if (isSwedish) {
return `${verdictLabel}: Påstått värde ${claim.claimedValue}${claim.claimedUnit ? ' ' + claim.claimedUnit : ''} jämfört med officiellt värde ${officialValue}${period} enligt ${sourceName}.`;
}
return `${verdictLabel}: Claimed value ${claim.claimedValue}${claim.claimedUnit ? ' ' + claim.claimedUnit : ''} compared to official value ${officialValue}${period} from ${sourceName}.`;
}
/**
* Get localized fact-check section heading.
*
* @param lang - Language code
* @param section - Section key
* @returns Localized heading string
*/
export function getFactCheckHeading(
lang: Language | string,
section: keyof FactCheckHeadings,
): string {
const headings = FACT_CHECK_HEADINGS[lang as Language] ?? FACT_CHECK_HEADINGS.en;
return headings[section];
}
/**
* Check if content contains statistical claims worth fact-checking.
* Quick pre-filter before running full detection.
*
* @param content - Text content to check
* @returns True if content likely contains statistical claims
*/
export function hasStatisticalClaims(content: string): boolean {
const text = content.toLowerCase();
const patterns: readonly RegExp[] = [
/\d+[,.]?\d*\s*(?:procent|percent|%)/i,
/(?:ökade?|minskade?|sjönk|steg)\s+(?:med|till)\s+\d/i,
/\b(?:increased?|decreased?|fell|rose|dropped)\s+(?:by|to)\s+\d/i,
/\barbetslöshet/i,
/\bunemployment/i,
/\bBNP\b/i,
/\bGDP\b/i,
/\binflation/i,
/\binvandring/i,
/\bimmigration\b/i,
/\bbrott/i,
/\bcrime\b/i,
/\bförsvarsutgift/i,
/\bmilitary\s+spending\b/i,
];
return patterns.some((p) => p.test(text));
}
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
// Internal helpers
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
/**
* Detect the unit of measurement from claim text.
*/
function detectUnit(text: string): string | undefined {
const lower = text.toLowerCase();
Eif (/procent|percent|%/.test(lower)) return 'percent';
if (/miljarder/.test(lower)) return 'billions SEK';
if (/miljoner/.test(lower)) return 'millions SEK';
if (/personer|person|människor|people|persons?/.test(lower)) return 'persons';
if (/bostäder/.test(lower)) return 'housing units';
return undefined;
}
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