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* @module Scripts/HorizonContext
* @category Intelligence Operations / Long-Horizon Forecasting
* @name Horizon context helpers for long-horizon workflows
*
* @description
* Pure helpers that read `analysis/article-types.json` (the single source
* of truth for article-type metadata) and return the runtime context
* every long-horizon workflow needs:
*
* - `cycleAnchor` — current | next | both | none
* - `daysToElection` — signed integer (negative = past)
* - `weoVintage` — "Apr-YYYY" | "Oct-YYYY" pinned at run time
* - `sessionPhase` — autumn | xmas-recess | spring | summer-recess
* - `articleType` — full registry entry for the calling workflow
*
* Intended/planned workflow consumers (not yet wired):
* - `news-quarter-ahead.md` / `news-year-ahead.md` / `news-election-cycle.md`
* do not currently invoke `tsx scripts/horizon-context.ts` or import
* this module; the wiring is planned follow-up work.
*
* Additional script consumers (`scripts/aggregate-analysis.ts`,
* `scripts/render-articles.ts`, `scripts/validate-article.ts`,
* `scripts/roll-forward-pirs.ts`) are planned follow-up work tracked in
* separate issues; they do not yet import this module.
*
* No filesystem mutations. Reads `analysis/article-types.json` once
* and caches the result for subsequent lookups.
*
* @author Hack23 AB
* @license Apache-2.0
*/
import { readFileSync } from 'node:fs';
import { resolve, dirname } from 'node:path';
import { fileURLToPath } from 'node:url';
const __filename = fileURLToPath(import.meta.url);
const __dirname = dirname(__filename);
const repoRoot = resolve(__dirname, '..');
export interface ArticleTypeEntry {
id: string;
family: 'single-type' | 'tier-c-aggregation' | 'long-horizon-forecast';
horizonDays: number;
lookbackDays: number;
subfolder: string;
tierCMultiplier: number;
articleWordFloor: number;
scenarioHorizonYears: number;
forwardIndicatorHorizons: string[];
electionCycleAnchor: 'current' | 'next' | 'both' | 'none';
imfPolicy: string;
icon: string;
label: string;
workflow: string;
cronExpression?: string;
dispatchOnly?: boolean;
coreLanguages: string[];
extraArtifacts: string[];
longHorizonRules?: {
scenarioCount?: number;
scenarioBranchesPerScenario?: number;
wildcardCount?: number;
counterfactualParagraphs?: number;
pestleMandatory?: boolean;
crossHorizonCitations?: string[];
minDokIdReferences?: number;
minCharts?: number;
};
}
export interface ElectionCycle {
id: string;
label: string;
start: string;
end: string;
governingCoalition: string[] | null;
confidenceSupport: string[] | null;
opposition: string[] | null;
}
export interface HorizonBand {
days: number;
wepFloor: string;
}
export interface ArticleTypesRegistry {
version: string;
effectiveDate: string;
description: string;
owner: string;
classification: string;
license?: string;
types: ArticleTypeEntry[];
electionCycles: { current: ElectionCycle; next: ElectionCycle };
horizonBands: Record<string, HorizonBand>;
}
let cached: ArticleTypesRegistry | null = null;
/**
* Load the article-types registry. Cached after first read.
*/
export function loadRegistry(): ArticleTypesRegistry {
if (cached) return cached;
const path = resolve(repoRoot, 'analysis/article-types.json');
const raw = readFileSync(path, 'utf8');
cached = JSON.parse(raw) as ArticleTypesRegistry;
return cached;
}
/**
* Resolve a single article-type entry by id. Throws when unknown.
*/
export function getArticleType(id: string): ArticleTypeEntry {
const reg = loadRegistry();
const entry = reg.types.find((t) => t.id === id);
if (!entry) {
throw new Error(
`Unknown article type "${id}". Known: ${reg.types.map((t) => t.id).join(', ')}`,
);
}
return entry;
}
/**
* Compute days from articleDate to the next election day (next.start
* in registry). Negative = past, positive = future.
*/
export function daysToElection(articleDate: string): number {
const reg = loadRegistry();
const elec = new Date(reg.electionCycles.next.start).getTime();
const today = new Date(articleDate).getTime();
return Math.floor((elec - today) / 86_400_000);
}
/**
* Resolve which cycle anchor applies for a given article date.
* Within the next-cycle's start..end window → 'next'. Else 'current'.
*/
export function activeCycleAnchor(articleDate: string): 'current' | 'next' {
const reg = loadRegistry();
const date = new Date(articleDate).getTime();
const nextStart = new Date(reg.electionCycles.next.start).getTime();
const nextEnd = new Date(reg.electionCycles.next.end).getTime();
return date >= nextStart && date < nextEnd ? 'next' : 'current';
}
/**
* Determine the most-recent IMF WEO vintage that should be pinned at
* run time. WEO is published twice yearly, in April and October.
*
* Coverage matrix (UTC month numbering):
* Jan–Apr (1–4) → previous year's Oct vintage (Apr not yet released)
* May–Oct (5–10) → current year's Apr vintage
* Nov–Dec (11–12) → current year's Oct vintage
*/
export function weoVintage(articleDate: string): string {
const d = new Date(articleDate);
const year = d.getUTCFullYear();
const month = d.getUTCMonth() + 1; // 1-12, always covered by the branches below.
if (month >= 11) return `Oct-${year}`;
if (month >= 5) return `Apr-${year}`;
return `Oct-${year - 1}`;
}
/**
* Riksmöte session phase for the article date. Phase boundaries are
* approximate (Riksdagen sets exact dates per year) but stable enough
* for forward-look workflows.
*/
export function sessionPhase(
articleDate: string,
): 'autumn' | 'xmas-recess' | 'spring' | 'summer-recess' {
const d = new Date(articleDate);
const m = d.getUTCMonth() + 1; // 1-12
const day = d.getUTCDate();
if (m === 9 || m === 10 || m === 11 || (m === 12 && day < 18)) return 'autumn';
if ((m === 12 && day >= 18) || m === 1) return 'xmas-recess';
if (m === 2 || m === 3 || m === 4 || m === 5 || (m === 6 && day < 18)) return 'spring';
return 'summer-recess';
}
export interface HorizonContext {
articleType: ArticleTypeEntry;
cycleAnchor: 'current' | 'next';
daysToElection: number;
weoVintage: string;
sessionPhase: 'autumn' | 'xmas-recess' | 'spring' | 'summer-recess';
cycleRolloverActive: boolean;
}
/**
* One-shot resolution of every horizon-context field for a workflow run.
* `cycleRolloverActive` is true when within ± 30 days of the next election.
*/
export function horizonContext(typeId: string, articleDate: string): HorizonContext {
const articleType = getArticleType(typeId);
const dte = daysToElection(articleDate);
return {
articleType,
cycleAnchor: activeCycleAnchor(articleDate),
daysToElection: dte,
weoVintage: weoVintage(articleDate),
sessionPhase: sessionPhase(articleDate),
cycleRolloverActive: Math.abs(dte) <= 30,
};
}
/**
* Public convenience wrappers — exported as a frozen object so callers
* can spread or destructure without accidentally mutating state.
*/
export const horizonContextHelpers = Object.freeze({
loadRegistry,
getArticleType,
daysToElection,
activeCycleAnchor,
weoVintage,
sessionPhase,
horizonContext,
});
/**
* CLI entry point — `tsx scripts/horizon-context.ts <type-id> <YYYY-MM-DD>`
* emits a JSON blob for use in workflow bash blocks:
*
* eval "$(tsx scripts/horizon-context.ts year-ahead 2026-07-05 | jq -r '
* "CYCLE_ANCHOR=\"\(.cycleAnchor)\";
* DAYS_TO_ELECTION=\(.daysToElection);
* WEO_VINTAGE=\"\(.weoVintage)\";
* SESSION_PHASE=\"\(.sessionPhase)\";
* WORD_FLOOR=\(.articleType.articleWordFloor)"')"
*/
const argv = process.argv.slice(2);
const isMain = (() => {
try {
return import.meta.url === `file://${process.argv[1]}`;
} catch {
return false;
}
})();
Iif (isMain) {
const [typeId, articleDate] = argv;
if (!typeId || !articleDate) {
console.error('Usage: tsx scripts/horizon-context.ts <type-id> <YYYY-MM-DD>');
process.exit(2);
}
const ctx = horizonContext(typeId, articleDate);
process.stdout.write(JSON.stringify(ctx, null, 2) + '\n');
}
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