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/**
* @module roll-forward-pirs
* @description Roll-forward PIR (Priority Intelligence Requirement) status
* sidecars between analysis cycles.
*
* Reads `pir-status.json` from a previous analysis cycle and propagates all
* open PIRs into the target cycle directory, creating a fresh `pir-status.json`
* that inherits the `pir_id` chain. Answered, superseded, cancelled, and
* deferred PIRs are carried forward unchanged (preserving their existing
* `inherits_from` history) so analysts can see the full chain.
*
* Module exports (for unit testing): `degrade`, `validateSource`, `rollForward`,
* `findLatestSource`, `parseArgs`, `subtractDays`, `addDays`, `isLongHorizon`,
* `emitRollforwardMd`, `runMain`. The CLI entry point only fires when this
* file is invoked directly (see isMainModule guard at the bottom of the file).
*
* Usage:
* npx tsx scripts/roll-forward-pirs.ts \
* --from analysis/daily/2026-04-26/month-ahead \
* --to analysis/daily/2026-04-27/month-ahead
*
* # Auto-detect previous cycle within 14 days:
* npx tsx scripts/roll-forward-pirs.ts \
* --date 2026-04-27 --cycle month-ahead
*
* # Dry-run (print JSON, do not write):
* npx tsx scripts/roll-forward-pirs.ts \
* --date 2026-04-27 --cycle month-ahead --dry-run
*
* Exit codes:
* 0 — success (file written or dry-run)
* 1 — no source found, missing args, unknown cycle
* 2 — schema validation error in source file (malformed JSON, unknown
* status/confidence enum, missing required field, bad pir_id)
*
* @author Hack23 AB
* @license Apache-2.0
*/
import fs from 'node:fs';
import path from 'node:path';
import { fileURLToPath } from 'node:url';
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
// Types (inlined to keep the module self-contained)
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
export type PirStatus = 'open' | 'answered' | 'superseded' | 'deferred' | 'cancelled';
export type Confidence = 'VERY HIGH' | 'HIGH' | 'MEDIUM' | 'LOW' | 'VERY LOW';
export type CycleType =
| 'committeeReports'
| 'propositions'
| 'motions'
| 'interpellations'
| 'evening-analysis'
| 'realtime-pulse'
| 'week-ahead'
| 'month-ahead'
| 'weekly-review'
| 'monthly-review'
| 'quarter-ahead'
| 'year-ahead'
| 'election-cycle';
export interface PirEntry {
pir_id: string;
statement: string;
trigger?: string;
status: PirStatus;
confidence: Confidence;
answer_summary?: string;
inherits_from?: string[];
evidence_refs?: string[];
horizon?: string;
admiralty_grade?: string;
}
export interface PirStatusFile {
schema_version: '1.0';
cycle: CycleType;
date: string;
subfolder: string;
generated_at: string;
inherited_from?: string | null;
pirs: PirEntry[];
}
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
// Constants
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
const __dirname = path.dirname(fileURLToPath(import.meta.url));
export const REPO_ROOT = path.resolve(__dirname, '..');
const ANALYSIS_DIR = path.join(REPO_ROOT, 'analysis', 'daily');
const PIR_FILE = 'pir-status.json';
const VALID_CYCLES = new Set<CycleType>([
'committeeReports',
'propositions',
'motions',
'interpellations',
'evening-analysis',
'realtime-pulse',
'week-ahead',
'month-ahead',
'weekly-review',
'monthly-review',
'quarter-ahead',
'year-ahead',
'election-cycle',
]);
const VALID_STATUSES = new Set<PirStatus>([
'open',
'answered',
'superseded',
'deferred',
'cancelled',
]);
const CONFIDENCE_ORDER: Confidence[] = [
'VERY HIGH',
'HIGH',
'MEDIUM',
'LOW',
'VERY LOW',
];
const VALID_CONFIDENCES = new Set<Confidence>(CONFIDENCE_ORDER);
const PIR_ID_PATTERN = /^PIR-[A-Za-z0-9]+(-[A-Za-z0-9]+)*$/;
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
// Pure helpers (exported for unit testing)
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
/** Subtract N calendar days from an ISO date string, returning YYYY-MM-DD. */
export function subtractDays(isoDate: string, n: number): string {
const d = new Date(`${isoDate}T12:00:00Z`);
d.setUTCDate(d.getUTCDate() - n);
return d.toISOString().slice(0, 10);
}
/** Add N calendar days to an ISO date string, returning YYYY-MM-DD. */
export function addDays(isoDate: string, n: number): string {
const d = new Date(`${isoDate}T12:00:00Z`);
d.setUTCDate(d.getUTCDate() + n);
return d.toISOString().slice(0, 10);
}
/**
* Degrade a confidence label one step toward `VERY LOW`.
* Throws on unknown values rather than silently returning `VERY HIGH`.
*/
export function degrade(c: Confidence): Confidence {
const idx = CONFIDENCE_ORDER.indexOf(c);
if (idx === -1) {
throw new Error(`Unknown confidence value: '${String(c)}'`);
}
if (idx >= CONFIDENCE_ORDER.length - 1) return 'VERY LOW';
return CONFIDENCE_ORDER[idx + 1] as Confidence;
}
/**
* Walk backwards up to `maxLookback` days to find the most recent
* `pir-status.json` for the given cycle.
*/
export function findLatestSource(
cycle: string,
beforeDate: string,
maxLookback = 14,
analysisDir: string = ANALYSIS_DIR,
): string | null {
for (let i = 1; i <= maxLookback; i++) {
const candidate = path.join(
analysisDir,
subtractDays(beforeDate, i),
cycle,
PIR_FILE,
);
if (fs.existsSync(candidate)) return candidate;
}
return null;
}
/**
* Strict structural + enum validation. Validates top-level required fields,
* `schema_version`, `cycle`, `date`, `subfolder`, `generated_at`, optional
* `inherited_from`, `pirs` array shape, and each PIR's `pir_id` pattern,
* `status`, and `confidence` enum membership. Does not call ajv to keep the
* script dependency-free.
*
* @throws Error with descriptive message on any validation failure.
*/
export function validateSource(raw: unknown, filePath: string): PirStatusFile {
if (typeof raw !== 'object' || raw === null) {
throw new Error(`${filePath}: not a JSON object`);
}
const obj = raw as Record<string, unknown>;
for (const key of ['schema_version', 'cycle', 'date', 'subfolder', 'generated_at', 'pirs'] as const) {
if (!(key in obj)) throw new Error(`${filePath}: missing required field '${key}'`);
}
if (obj['schema_version'] !== '1.0') {
throw new Error(
`${filePath}: unsupported schema_version '${String(obj['schema_version'])}'`,
);
}
if (typeof obj['cycle'] !== 'string' || !VALID_CYCLES.has(obj['cycle'] as CycleType)) {
throw new Error(`${filePath}: cycle '${String(obj['cycle'])}' is not a valid cycle`);
}
if (typeof obj['date'] !== 'string' || !/^\d{4}-\d{2}-\d{2}$/.test(obj['date'])) {
throw new Error(`${filePath}: date '${String(obj['date'])}' must match YYYY-MM-DD`);
}
if (typeof obj['subfolder'] !== 'string' || obj['subfolder'].length === 0) {
throw new Error(`${filePath}: subfolder must be a non-empty string`);
}
if (obj['subfolder'] !== obj['cycle']) {
throw new Error(
`${filePath}: subfolder '${String(obj['subfolder'])}' must equal cycle '${String(obj['cycle'])}'`,
);
}
if (typeof obj['generated_at'] !== 'string' || Number.isNaN(Date.parse(obj['generated_at']))) {
throw new Error(`${filePath}: generated_at '${String(obj['generated_at'])}' must be a valid date-time string`);
}
if (
obj['inherited_from'] !== undefined &&
obj['inherited_from'] !== null &&
typeof obj['inherited_from'] !== 'string'
) {
throw new Error(`${filePath}: inherited_from must be a string or null when present`);
}
if (!Array.isArray(obj['pirs'])) {
throw new Error(`${filePath}: 'pirs' must be an array`);
}
for (let i = 0; i < (obj['pirs'] as unknown[]).length; i++) {
const p = (obj['pirs'] as unknown[])[i] as Record<string, unknown>;
if (typeof p !== 'object' || p === null) {
throw new Error(`${filePath}: pirs[${i}] is not an object`);
}
if (typeof p['pir_id'] !== 'string' || !PIR_ID_PATTERN.test(p['pir_id'])) {
throw new Error(
`${filePath}: pirs[${i}].pir_id '${String(p['pir_id'])}' does not match ${PIR_ID_PATTERN}`,
);
}
if (typeof p['statement'] !== 'string' || p['statement'].length < 10) {
throw new Error(
`${filePath}: pirs[${i}] (${String(p['pir_id'])}).statement missing or shorter than 10 chars`,
);
}
if (!VALID_STATUSES.has(p['status'] as PirStatus)) {
throw new Error(
`${filePath}: pirs[${i}] (${String(p['pir_id'])}).status '${String(p['status'])}' is not a valid PIR status`,
);
}
if (!VALID_CONFIDENCES.has(p['confidence'] as Confidence)) {
throw new Error(
`${filePath}: pirs[${i}] (${String(p['pir_id'])}).confidence '${String(p['confidence'])}' is not a valid confidence value`,
);
}
if (p['status'] === 'answered') {
if (typeof p['answer_summary'] !== 'string' || p['answer_summary'].length === 0) {
throw new Error(
`${filePath}: pirs[${i}] (${String(p['pir_id'])}) status='answered' requires non-empty answer_summary`,
);
}
} else if (p['answer_summary'] !== undefined) {
throw new Error(
`${filePath}: pirs[${i}] (${String(p['pir_id'])}) status='${String(p['status'])}' must not carry answer_summary`,
);
}
}
return obj as unknown as PirStatusFile;
}
/**
* Build a rolled-forward PIR status file.
*
* - Open PIRs are carried forward with confidence degraded by one level
* (HIGH → MEDIUM, etc.) to signal that staleness must be addressed; the
* prior `pir_id` is appended to the existing `inherits_from` chain so
* inheritance is fully preserved.
* - Non-open PIRs (answered, superseded, deferred, cancelled) are carried
* forward UNCHANGED — including any pre-existing `inherits_from` chain —
* so the historical lineage is never lost.
*/
export function rollForward(
source: PirStatusFile,
sourcePath: string,
targetDate: string,
targetCycle: CycleType,
options: { now?: () => Date; repoRoot?: string } = {},
): PirStatusFile {
const now = options.now ?? (() => new Date());
const repoRoot = options.repoRoot ?? REPO_ROOT;
const pirs: PirEntry[] = source.pirs.map((p) => {
if (p.status !== 'open') {
return { ...p };
}
const { answer_summary: _dropped, ...rest } = p;
void _dropped;
return {
...rest,
confidence: degrade(p.confidence),
inherits_from: [...(p.inherits_from ?? []), p.pir_id],
};
});
const relativeToRepo = path.relative(repoRoot, sourcePath);
const relativeSourcePath =
relativeToRepo &&
!relativeToRepo.startsWith('..') &&
!path.isAbsolute(relativeToRepo)
? relativeToRepo.split(path.sep).join('/')
: sourcePath.split(path.sep).join('/');
return {
schema_version: '1.0',
cycle: targetCycle,
date: targetDate,
subfolder: targetCycle,
generated_at: now().toISOString(),
inherited_from: relativeSourcePath,
pirs,
};
}
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
// Horizon PIR roll-forward Markdown emission
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
/**
* Horizon days for each cycle type. Values sourced from
* `analysis/article-types.json` → `horizonBands`. All cycles are explicitly
* listed so there is no silent fallback.
*/
const CYCLE_HORIZON_DAYS: Record<CycleType, number> = {
committeeReports: 7,
propositions: 7,
motions: 7,
interpellations: 7,
'evening-analysis': 3,
'realtime-pulse': 3,
'week-ahead': 7,
'month-ahead': 30,
'weekly-review': 7,
'monthly-review': 30,
'quarter-ahead': 90,
'year-ahead': 365,
'election-cycle': 1460,
};
/**
* Determine whether a cycle qualifies for automatic roll-forward Markdown
* emission. Returns true when the cycle has `horizonDays >= 90`.
*/
export function isLongHorizon(cycle: CycleType): boolean {
return CYCLE_HORIZON_DAYS[cycle] >= 90;
}
/**
* Determine whether a PIR was inherited from the source or created in this run.
* Uses `sourcePirIds` (authoritative) when available, otherwise falls back to
* `output.inherited_from` presence or the PIR's own `inherits_from` chain.
*/
function determineOrigin(
pir: PirEntry,
sourcePirIds: Set<string> | undefined,
output: PirStatusFile,
): 'inherited' | 'this run' {
if (sourcePirIds) {
return sourcePirIds.has(pir.pir_id) ? 'inherited' : 'this run';
}
Eif (output.inherited_from) {
return 'inherited';
}
return pir.inherits_from && pir.inherits_from.length > 0 ? 'inherited' : 'this run';
}
/**
* Render a `horizon-pir-rollforward.md` Markdown document from a rolled-forward
* PIR status file. Groups PIRs by status and stamps each open PIR with an
* obsolescence date calculated as `targetDate + horizonDays`.
*
* @param output - The rolled-forward PIR status file to render.
* @param sourcePath - Path of the source file that produced `output`, used to
* compute repo-relative paths in the rendered Markdown.
* @param targetDate - The roll-forward target date (YYYY-MM-DD), anchor for
* the obsolescence calculation.
* @param options - Optional `repoRoot` override and the `sourcePirIds` Set
* identifying which PIRs were inherited from the source file (vs. newly
* created during this run).
* @returns Markdown text for the `horizon-pir-rollforward.md` artifact.
*/
export function emitRollforwardMd(
output: PirStatusFile,
sourcePath: string,
targetDate: string,
options: { repoRoot?: string; sourcePirIds?: Set<string> } = {},
): string {
const repoRoot = options.repoRoot ?? REPO_ROOT;
const horizonDays = CYCLE_HORIZON_DAYS[output.cycle];
let predecessorFolder: string;
if (output.inherited_from) {
predecessorFolder = output.inherited_from.replace(/\/pir-status\.json$/, '');
Iif (predecessorFolder.endsWith('/')) {
predecessorFolder = predecessorFolder.slice(0, -1);
}
} else E{
const relSource = path.relative(repoRoot, sourcePath).split(path.sep).join('/');
predecessorFolder = path.dirname(relSource);
}
const sourceDate = output.inherited_from
? (() => {
const match = /(\d{4}-\d{2}-\d{2})/.exec(predecessorFolder);
return match ? match[1] : 'unknown';
})()
: 'unknown';
const daysSince =
sourceDate !== 'unknown'
? Math.round(
(new Date(`${targetDate}T12:00:00Z`).getTime() -
new Date(`${sourceDate}T12:00:00Z`).getTime()) /
86_400_000,
)
: 0;
const lines: string[] = [];
lines.push(`# 🔁 Horizon PIR Roll-Forward`);
lines.push('');
lines.push(`> Auto-generated by \`scripts/roll-forward-pirs.ts --emit-rollforward-md\``);
lines.push(`> Cycle: **${output.cycle}** | Date: **${targetDate}**`);
lines.push('');
lines.push('---');
lines.push('');
lines.push('## 1 — Predecessor Manifest');
lines.push('');
lines.push('```');
lines.push(`Predecessor folder: ${predecessorFolder}/`);
lines.push(`Days since predecessor: ${daysSince}`);
lines.push('```');
lines.push('');
lines.push('---');
lines.push('');
lines.push('## 2 — PIR Genealogy Table');
lines.push('');
lines.push('| PIR ID | Status | Origin | Confidence | Obsolescence Date | Notes |');
lines.push('|--------|--------|--------|------------|-------------------|-------|');
for (const pir of output.pirs) {
const origin = determineOrigin(pir, options.sourcePirIds, output);
const obsolescenceDate =
pir.status === 'open' ? addDays(targetDate, horizonDays) : '—';
const notes =
pir.status === 'open'
? `Confidence degraded on roll-forward`
: `Status: ${pir.status}`;
lines.push(
`| ${pir.pir_id} | ${pir.status} | ${origin} | ${pir.confidence} | ${obsolescenceDate} | ${notes} |`,
);
}
lines.push('');
lines.push('---');
lines.push('');
const openPirs = output.pirs.filter((p) => p.status === 'open');
lines.push('## 3 — Active PIRs (with obsolescence dates)');
lines.push('');
Iif (openPirs.length === 0) {
lines.push('_No open PIRs carried forward._');
} else {
for (const pir of openPirs) {
lines.push(`### ${pir.pir_id}`);
lines.push(`- **Statement:** ${pir.statement}`);
lines.push(`- **Confidence:** ${pir.confidence}`);
lines.push(`- **Obsolescence date:** ${addDays(targetDate, horizonDays)}`);
if (pir.inherits_from && pir.inherits_from.length > 0) {
lines.push(`- **Inherits from:** ${pir.inherits_from.join(' → ')}`);
}
if (pir.evidence_refs && pir.evidence_refs.length > 0) {
lines.push(`- **Evidence:** ${pir.evidence_refs.join(', ')}`);
}
lines.push('');
}
}
lines.push('---');
lines.push('');
const archivedPirs = output.pirs.filter((p) => p.status !== 'open');
lines.push('## 4 — Archived / Resolved PIRs');
lines.push('');
Iif (archivedPirs.length === 0) {
lines.push('_No archived PIRs in this roll-forward._');
} else {
lines.push('| PIR ID | Status | Confidence | Notes |');
lines.push('|--------|--------|------------|-------|');
for (const pir of archivedPirs) {
const notes = pir.answer_summary ? pir.answer_summary : '—';
lines.push(`| ${pir.pir_id} | ${pir.status} | ${pir.confidence} | ${notes} |`);
}
}
lines.push('');
return lines.join('\n');
}
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
// CLI argument parsing
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
export interface CliArgs {
from?: string;
to?: string;
date?: string;
cycle?: CycleType;
dryRun: boolean;
maxLookback: number;
emitRollforwardMd: boolean;
}
export function parseArgs(argv: string[]): CliArgs {
const args: CliArgs = { dryRun: false, maxLookback: 14, emitRollforwardMd: false };
for (let i = 0; i < argv.length; i++) {
const arg = argv[i];
if (arg === '--from') args.from = argv[++i];
else if (arg === '--to') args.to = argv[++i];
else if (arg === '--date') args.date = argv[++i];
else if (arg === '--cycle') args.cycle = argv[++i] as CycleType;
else if (arg === '--dry-run') args.dryRun = true;
else if (arg === '--emit-rollforward-md') args.emitRollforwardMd = true;
else Eif (arg === '--max-lookback') {
const raw = argv[++i];
if (!raw || raw.startsWith('--')) {
throw new Error('--max-lookback requires a positive integer value');
}
const parsed = Number.parseInt(raw, 10);
if (!/^[0-9]+$/.test(raw.trim()) || !Number.isFinite(parsed) || parsed < 1) {
throw new Error(`--max-lookback must be a positive integer (received '${raw}')`);
}
args.maxLookback = parsed;
}
}
return args;
}
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
// Main (CLI entry point)
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
export interface RunIO {
stdout?: NodeJS.WritableStream;
stderr?: NodeJS.WritableStream;
cwd?: string;
exit?: (code: number) => never;
now?: () => Date;
}
export function runMain(argv: string[], io: RunIO = {}): void {
const out = io.stdout ?? process.stdout;
const err = io.stderr ?? process.stderr;
const exit = io.exit ?? ((c: number): never => process.exit(c));
let args: CliArgs;
try {
args = parseArgs(argv);
} catch (e) {
err.write(`Argument error: ${String(e instanceof Error ? e.message : e)}\n`);
exit(1);
return;
}
let sourcePath: string;
let targetDir: string;
let targetDate: string;
let targetCycle: CycleType;
if (args.from && args.to) {
sourcePath = path.isAbsolute(args.from)
? path.join(args.from, PIR_FILE)
: path.join(REPO_ROOT, args.from, PIR_FILE);
targetDir = path.isAbsolute(args.to) ? args.to : path.join(REPO_ROOT, args.to);
if (!fs.existsSync(sourcePath)) {
err.write(`Source not found: ${sourcePath}\n`);
exit(1);
return;
}
const parts = targetDir.replace(/\\/g, '/').split('/');
const dailyIdx = parts.indexOf('daily');
const datePart = dailyIdx >= 0 && dailyIdx + 1 < parts.length ? (parts[dailyIdx + 1] ?? '') : '';
const cyclePart = dailyIdx >= 0 && dailyIdx + 2 < parts.length ? (parts[dailyIdx + 2] ?? '') : '';
targetDate = datePart;
targetCycle = cyclePart as CycleType;
if (!/^\d{4}-\d{2}-\d{2}$/.test(targetDate) || !VALID_CYCLES.has(targetCycle)) {
err.write(`Cannot derive date/cycle from --to path: ${args.to}\n`);
exit(1);
return;
}
} else if (args.date && args.cycle) {
if (!VALID_CYCLES.has(args.cycle)) {
err.write(`Unknown cycle: ${args.cycle}. Valid: ${[...VALID_CYCLES].join(', ')}\n`);
exit(1);
return;
}
targetDate = args.date;
targetCycle = args.cycle;
targetDir = path.join(ANALYSIS_DIR, targetDate, targetCycle);
const found = findLatestSource(targetCycle, targetDate, args.maxLookback);
Eif (!found) {
err.write(
`No previous pir-status.json found for cycle '${targetCycle}' within ${args.maxLookback} days before ${targetDate}. Exiting with code 1.\n`,
);
exit(1);
return;
}
sourcePath = found;
} else {
err.write(
'Usage:\n' +
' roll-forward-pirs --from <dir> --to <dir>\n' +
' roll-forward-pirs --date YYYY-MM-DD --cycle <cycle> [--dry-run] [--max-lookback N]\n',
);
exit(1);
return;
}
let rawSource: unknown;
try {
rawSource = JSON.parse(fs.readFileSync(sourcePath, 'utf-8'));
} catch (e) {
err.write(`Failed to read source: ${String(e)}\n`);
exit(2);
return;
}
let source: PirStatusFile;
try {
source = validateSource(rawSource, sourcePath);
} catch (e) {
err.write(`Schema validation error: ${String(e)}\n`);
exit(2);
return;
}
const opts: { now?: () => Date } = {};
if (io.now) opts.now = io.now;
const output = rollForward(source, sourcePath, targetDate, targetCycle, opts);
const json = JSON.stringify(output, null, 2) + '\n';
if (args.dryRun) {
out.write(json);
return;
}
if (!fs.existsSync(targetDir)) fs.mkdirSync(targetDir, { recursive: true });
const targetPath = path.join(targetDir, PIR_FILE);
fs.writeFileSync(targetPath, json, 'utf-8');
out.write(
`✅ Rolled forward ${source.pirs.filter((p) => p.status === 'open').length} open PIR(s) ` +
`from ${sourcePath.replace(REPO_ROOT + path.sep, '')} → ${targetPath.replace(REPO_ROOT + path.sep, '')}\n`,
);
if (args.emitRollforwardMd || isLongHorizon(targetCycle)) {
const sourcePirIds = new Set(source.pirs.map((p) => p.pir_id));
const md = emitRollforwardMd(output, sourcePath, targetDate, { sourcePirIds });
const mdPath = path.join(targetDir, 'horizon-pir-rollforward.md');
fs.writeFileSync(mdPath, md, 'utf-8');
out.write(
`📄 Emitted ${mdPath.replace(REPO_ROOT + path.sep, '')}\n`,
);
}
}
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
// CLI guard — only run main() when invoked directly.
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
const isMainModule = (() => {
try {
const invokedPath = process.argv[1] ? path.resolve(process.argv[1]) : '';
const modulePath = fileURLToPath(import.meta.url);
return invokedPath === modulePath;
} catch {
return false;
}
})();
Iif (isMainModule) {
try {
runMain(process.argv.slice(2));
} catch (e) {
process.stderr.write(`Unexpected error: ${String(e)}\n`);
process.exit(1);
}
}
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