Module: ElectionIntelligence/PreElectionMonitoring

Swedish Pre-Election Activity Monitoring & Electoral Behavior Intelligence Dashboard

Advanced intelligence analysis platform implementing critical pre-election period monitoring (12-24 months before elections) with real-time activity anomaly detection. Detects election-driven behavior changes through quarterly comparison and establishes early warning indicators for coalition formation, government dissolution, and electoral campaign intensity. Uses comparative analytics to distinguish Q4 normal-year baseline from election-year surge patterns.

Intelligence Methodology

This module implements pre-election period intelligence monitoring:

• Critical Period: Q4 (October-December) in years preceding elections (2022, 2026, 2030)
• Comparison Baseline: Non-election years to establish normal-year Q4 patterns
• Activity Metrics: Ballots, documents, committee decisions, parliamentary attendance
• Anomaly Detection: Z-score and percentage-change thresholds for alerting

Pre-Election Intelligence Framework

Three-Dimensional Analysis Taxonomy:

1. Quarterly Activity Metrics (Baseline Comparison)

   • Ballot volume (votes in parliamentary chambers)
   • Document production (government proposals, motions)
   • Committee decision output
   • Parliamentary attendance and participation rates
   • Speech frequency and debate intensity

2. Election-Year vs. Non-Election Comparison (Anomaly Detection)

   • Q4 activity deltas (election years vs. baseline years)
   • Percentage change from historical average
   • Statistical significance testing (Z-scores)
   • Confidence intervals on normal-year patterns

3. Pre-Election Behavior Patterns (Campaign Indicator)

   • Increased legislative activity (bills, amendments)
   • Coalition positioning behaviors
   • Government confidence votes and stability tests
   • Media attention surge and political discourse intensity
   • Campaign messaging through parliamentary statements

Data Sources (CIA Platform)

Primary Intelligence Feeds:

• view_riksdagen_pre_election_quarterly_activity_sample.csv

  • Fields: year, quarter, ballot_count, document_count, attendance_rate, decision_count
  • Scope: Quarterly data spanning 20+ years (2002-2025)
  • Use: Historical pattern baseline establishment, trend analysis

• view_riksdagen_q4_election_year_comparison_sample.csv

  • Fields: metric_name, q4_election_year, q4_baseline_avg, percent_delta, z_score, significance
  • Scope: Comparative analysis across election/non-election years
  • Use: Anomaly identification, early warning detection

OSINT Collection Strategy

Pre-Election Intelligence Monitoring:

1. Parliamentary Activity Tracking: Real-time Riksdag API feeds
2. Government Statements: Official announcements and press releases
3. Coalition Communications: Party leader statements and negotiations
4. Media Monitoring: Campaign coverage volume and intensity
5. Electoral Board: Official election date announcements
6. Polling Data: Pre-election polls with trend tracking
7. Social Media: Campaign activity and engagement surge detection

Visualization Intelligence

Chart.js Quarterly Activity Trends (Primary):

• 20-Year Q4 Activity Timeline: Baseline vs. election year comparison
  • Multi-line chart with election-year Q4s highlighted
  • Separate lines for: ballots, documents, attendance, decisions
  • Color coding: Normal years (blue) vs. Election years (red/orange)
  • Interactive: Hover reveals detailed metrics and year identification

Chart.js Election-Year Comparison (Anomaly):

• Pre-Election Surge Indicators: Percentage change from baseline
  • Bar chart showing positive/negative deltas for each metric
  • Color-coded by significance level (green/yellow/red)
  • Threshold lines showing warning (20%) and alert (50%) thresholds

Chart.js Early Warning System (Alert):

• Statistical Anomaly Flags: Z-score heat map
  • Metrics ordered by statistical significance
  • Color intensity represents deviation magnitude
  • Identifies which metrics show strongest election-year signals

Chart.js Year-Over-Year Comparison (Temporal):

• Q4 by Year Heatmap: Multi-year quarterly comparison
  • 20 years × 4 metrics = 80-cell matrix
  • Color intensity shows activity level
  • Diagonal highlights show election-year concentrations

Intelligence Analysis Frameworks Applied